Objective: FEV1 measured on the first postoperative day has shown to be a better predictor of complications than traditional ppoFEV1. Therefore, its estimation before operation may enhance risk stratification. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict FEV1 on the first postoperative day after major lung resection. Methods: FEV1 was prospectively measured on the first postoperative day in 272 patients submitted for lobectomy or pneumonectomy at two centers. A random sample of 136 patients was used to develop a model estimating the first day FEV1 by using multiple regression analysis including several preoperative and operative factors. The model was then validated by bootstrap analysis and tested on the other sample of 136 patients. Results: Factors reliably associated with postoperative first day FEV1 were age (p=0.002), preoperative FEV1 (p<0.0001), the presence of epidural analgesia (p<0.0001), and the percentage of non-obstructed segments removed during operation (p=0.001). The following model estimating the first day postoperative FEV1 was derived: -2.648+0.295xage+0.371xFEV1+8.216xepidural analgesia-0.338xpercentage of non-obstructed segments removed during operation. In the validation set, the mean predicted first day postoperative FEV1 value did not differ from the observed one (42.6 vs 42.0, respectively; p=0.3) and the plot of the observed versus the predicted first day FEV1 showed a satisfactory calibration. Conclusions: We developed a model predicting the first day postoperative FEV1. If future analyses will prove its role in stratifying the early postoperative risk, it may be integrated in preoperative evaluation algorithms to refine risk stratification.

BACKGROUND: Left-sided double-lumen tubes are perceived to be safer than right-sided tubes, because they may be less prone to malposition. If this is true, then the incidence and severity of hypoxemia, hypercapnea, and high airway pressures should be higher for right-sided tubes during thoracic surgery than for left-sided tubes.

METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed thoracic surgical anesthetics between April 15, 2003, and December 31, 2004, using an automated anesthesia information management system. The system automatically records pulse oximetry, end-tidal carbon dioxide, and peak inspiratory pressure data every 30 s. Side of surgery and double-lumen tube placement are also documented. We compared the frequency of right- and left-sided Mallinckrodt tube use by thoracic anesthesiologists. Next, we examined the incidence, duration, and severity of hypoxemia (Spo2 <90%), hypercapnea (Etco2 >45 mm Hg) and high airway pressures (peak inspiratory pressure >35 cm H2O) for lung and chest wall surgery patients. Group counts and means were compared by standard statistical methods.

RESULTS: Right- (n = 241) and left- (n = 450) sided tubes were almost exclusively used on the side contralateral to surgery. There were no differences in the incidence or duration of hypoxemia, hypercarbia, or high airway pressures. There was a small but significant increase in Etco2 for patients having left lung ventilation.

CONCLUSIONS: The supposition that left-sided double-lumen tubes are safer than right-sided tubes when intraoperative hypoxemia, hypercapnea, and high airway pressures are used as criteria for safety is not supported by our data comparing the two types of tubes from one manufacturer.